DEGENERATES ASSEMBLE! Ok so I guess we aren’t The Avengers! But if fight fans and degenerate gamblers had a super hero team, I’d be in it. So as we head to Utah for this weekends UFC307 card, make sure you get locked in, trust the research is done, and responsibly sprinkle some cash on this card!

I love this card. Mainly because it’s boiling the piss of the so called MMA experts around the world, that claim it isn’t PPV worthy. Alex Pereira isn’t PPV worthy? You realise with PPV it’s the main event you’re paying for right? Nerds.

Anyway, we got 5 fights to break down so let’s get the F into it!

We open the card with a middleweight banger! Well a middleweight and a welterweight pretending to be a 185er. Bit early for Halloween Kev. But hey, ballsy as always bro.

ROMAN DOLIDZE V KEVIN HOLLAND

Now let me make one thing clear. I love me some Kevin Holland. The guy is quality. He’s funny, he can bang, he’s super entertaining. But, he is not a middleweight. Yes he beat Oleksiejczuk last time out, but that isn’t exactly amazing. Plus Kev is a streaky fighter. You never really know what you’re going to get with him. He could end up talking to his foe for the whole 3 rounds. He’s done it before! I ain’t hating I promise. He has great stand up, slick submissions and is always fun to watch regardless. I just think he’s more of a 170 type of a guy. Overall Holland is 26-11 in MMA.

Roman Dolidaze is a true middleweight, 13-3 overall and just went up to 205 and beat Anthony Smith at UFC303. You might see where I’m going with this. He went up to light heavyweight and won. Holland is more suited to 170. You do the math. To boot Dolidze is also a solid powerful striker, can wrestle and has great submission skills. Dolidze has also never been finished in his career. Basically I am struggling for ways to justify Kevin Holland being the betting favourite here. It’s just a lack of respect for Dolidze in my opinion. But F it we will take the underdog and open up the main card with a W! Cheers sports books!

PICK – Roman Dolidze to win @ +125

Moving along we head to the women’s 135 pound division.

KAYLA HARRISON V KETLEN VIEIRA.

Kayla Harrison is the biggest favourite on this card with odds of around -1200. So don’t be reading this expecting me to give you a route for Ketlen Vieira to win. Because I don’t have one. If she does somehow beat the 2 x Olympic Gold medalist Harrison, it will be because god decided to have some fun that day. Ketlen has skills, she is a black belt in BJJ and judo. But she also got knocked out by Irene Aldana.

Kayla Harrison isn’t just a black belt in Judo. She’s a 6th dan black belt in Judo. On top of that she is an absolute savage and huge for the 135lb weight division. She competed at 155 in PFL. She is coming in off a submission win over Holly Holm. I expect Kayla to win this fight comfortably and inside the distance. No value in the money line. So find your favourite prop play. Or take mine. In fact take mine, you’ll only get it wrong! lol.

PICK – Kayla Harrison to win by finish @ +110.

We keep it rolling straight into my favourite fight on the main card!

JOSE ALDO V MARIO BAUTISTA

This could well be the fight of the night.

Jose Aldo returned from retirement at UFC301 and showed the break did him the world of good. As he comfortably beat prospect Jonathan Martinez by unanimous decision. He looked absolutely sensational in doing so!

Now if you’re reading this article and you need me to break down Jose Aldo and how he fights, then you have to be new to MMA. But just to confirm it, Jose Aldo is a legend. A absolute killer on the feet. Write him off at your peril, and yes I don’t give a F that he’s 38.

His opponent Mario Bautista is of course the younger man, riding a 6 fight win streak in the UFC. He has very good striking, and is a BJJ black belt with a record of 14-2. He beat Ricky Simon last time out by unanimous decision.

This is a close fight and these dudes match up really well! But this is a major step up skill wise for Bautista. Aldo in his prime would have eaten him for breakfast. Bautista’s wins all come against guys a level below even an aging Jose Aldo. Unless Aldo has nosedived since his return win in May, I have to play Jose Aldo as a betting underdog. That’s right I said underdog! Bautista is good, but this isn’t his night just yet. Aldo will kick his way to a decision win, but we will play it safe and hit up the money line. The king of Rio moves to 2-0 since his retirement. Now Dana, if you’re reading, make Aldo v Suga Sean in 2025. It’s FIRE.

PICK – Jose Aldo to win @ +120.

CO-MAIN EVENT, for women’s Bantamweight gold!

RAQUEL PENNINGTON V JULIANNA PENA

The champ Rocky Pennington makes her first title defence since winning the vacant belt at UFC297 back in January. She faces the former champ Julianna Pena in an intriguing match up.

I kinda feel this fight is going to go one of two ways. Pena is going to show her win over Nunes was no fluke, and submit Pennington inside a couple of rounds. Or the more likely scenario, it’s going to be a drawn out grinding win on the cards for Pennington, where she beats Pena up for 25 minutes. I can’t say I’m super excited for this one. Both girls are solid fighters, and whilst it’s a close fight it just doesn’t have that co main event vibe to it for me. Regardless of the belt being on the line. Hopefully I’m proven wrong and it’s a super exciting fight and one for the ages! But sadly I don’t expect to be proven wrong here.

Whilst you can never count Pena out. When laying money I have to side with the champ in this one to tough it out, stifle Pena, and take a decision win on the cards to retain her title.

PICK – Raquel Pennington to win via DEC +110.

LADIES AND GENTLEMAN. It’s time for the main event of the evening! 205 gold on the line! CHAMA!

ALEX PEREIRA V KHALIL ROUNTREE JR.

THE CHAMP IS HERE! Who doesn’t love Alex Pereira? The guy has become an absolute superstar since joining the UFC. Not bad for a guy who doesn’t speak a huge amount of English. People just love to watch this guy fight. He’s a true knockout artist! Plus he is the definition of a fighting champ! Always active. Never shys away from a fight. If you couldn’t already tell, I’d probably turn gay and marry the guy. He’s that f’ing good!

Khalil Rountree Jr is ranked 7 and has come in for a lot of criticism for getting this title shot. But it’s a fight I like. Yes Alex is rightly a big favourite. But Khalil isn’t a slouch. He’s won 5 straight and 4 of those by stoppage. He’s got a chance. Even if it’s only a punchers one. If he pulls it off, it will quite literally be the biggest upset of the year so far. Or at least one of them.

I don’t see a whole host of grappling here. Unless both change their normal game plans. It’s going to be a stand up fight. One that I don’t think lasts too long. Alex is a solid parlay piece at -450, but if you want a better bet than that. I’d look at the unders market. I will be. As if this goes past a few rounds, I’ll be just as shocked as if Khalil pulls off the win! Trust me, play the unders. Alex doesn’t hang around, and Khalil knows it’s kill or be killed in this one. Judges certainly will not be needed.

PICK – Alex Pereira to win @ -450. But the best bet is under 1.5 rounds @ +105.

If you fancy a free bet on any of the fights, hit up my man theverifiedbookie.com and use code BANANAS for a free 20$ bet on any fight.

Enjoy the violence.
Phil (@PhilsBananas)