Happy Friday my degenerate crowd! Fresh off the heels of a profitable DWCS show on Tuesday, we head back to The Apex for UFC Vegas 98 Royval v Taira. My plan for this card is to continue to leave the judges out of the occasion. As we have seen the level of judging continue to decrease this past few months, costing bettors thousands of pounds. I mean I don’t mind taking a legit L. Or even a close decision loss. But when it’s obvious the other guy or gal should have got their hand raised, it’s a tough one to continually take. See last Saturdays UFC307 card for context. Anyway, we got a six fight card to breakdown, so let’s get into it people! Boom.

ABDUL RAZAK ALHASSAN V JOSH FREMD.

We kick things off in the middleweight division. Spoiler alert. I think Josh Fremd is one of the worst fighters in the 185lb weigh class. In fact I think he’s one of the worst fighters in the UFC as a whole. He’s just not very good anywhere. His wrestling is average, and so is his stand up. Don’t get me wrong, it’s better than mine. But I don’t claim to be a professional fighter. It would be good if he had like crazy one shot power. But he doesn’t. An in a fight against Abdul, he’s completely outgunned.

Abdul Razak Alhassan is by no means a top ufc middleweight fighter. But he’s good, and what I like most of all about him is he loves to finish fights. Not always legally either. He’s just better everywhere here. He’s a black belt in Judo, has good boxing, and hits like a tank. Fremd’s only chance is to somehow survive the first half of the fight, and pray that Abdul gasses out. I just don’t think he will. So let’s get the card off to a flyer and cash the early ticket.

PICK – Alhassan to win via finish @ -120.

Next up we head to the welterweight division.

DANIEL RODRIGUEZ V ALEX MORONO.

Last time out Daniel Rodriguez got screwed in my opinion when he fought Kelvin “can’t be arsed to make weight” Gastelum. Yes Kelvin does have the better hands, but it’s not a fair fight when you don’t even attempt to make weight! This match up is a much better fight for D-Rod to get back on track with a win.

Alex Morono is no slouch. He’s had some good wins over his career and has a lethal submission game to boot. But he is an incredibly frustrating fighter to predict. Sometimes he looks great. Other times he displays some terrible fight IQ and thinks he can win fights purely off his back.

I fancy the bigger man to get the win her and that’s Daniel Rodriguez. He’s got solid boxing and throws at volume. Plus if he uses his wrestling he’s got a great path to victory as Morono has shocking take down defence. When Daniel gets Morono down, and he will. As long as he doesn’t get sloppy and fall into one of Alex’s submissions he’s got this fight in the bag. I aren’t sure he gets the finish, but he ain’t losing this one! Always role with the bigger guy in these mid level type match ups!

PICK – Daniel Rodriguez to win @ -225. 

Through 2, so we head to fight 3. Time for a grappling masterclass.

GRANT DAWSON V RAFA GARCIA.

Grant Dawson to put it simply is one of the best grapplers/wrestlers in the 155lb division. If you don’t get lucky like Bobby Green did, Grant Dawson is going to take you down, keep you there and probably submit you. If he can’t get the submission, he’s going to grind on you for 15 minutes and take the W on the cards. Don’t believe me? Go watch some tape.

It’s not that Rafa Garcia is a terrible fighter. He’s just a level below Grant Dawson. I’d give Garcia an edge in the striking, but he doesn’t hit with enough power to keep Grant off him. Garcia only has 1 KO win in his career. Rafa does have a good submission game, but the issue is it’s just not as good has his number 17 ranked opponent.

Dawson will be up for this big time. In fact I know he is. Rafa is in trouble. Big trouble. He’s going to sleep. Tap tap.

PICK – Grant Dawson wins via SUB @ +350.

Back to the welterweight division for fight number 4. Let’s keep bouncing along!

CHIDI NJOKUANI v JARED GOODEN. 

Now hear me out before you see the pick on this fight. Neither of these guys are great. This one’s all about value as a bettor. So don’t expect to see a -200 prop bet at the end of this.

Im going to keep this one short and sweet. Chidi is the better striker here, and if he plays to his strengths he should cash as a -170 favourite. But he doesn’t have the best fight IQ at times, and he can’t defend a takedown like a fat kid can’t eat cake. He has awful takedown defence. Now where Gooden isn’t the best takedown artist in the world, he gets the ones he goes for. So if he uses his big old brain he can use that advantage to win this fight. Let’s hope he does because the price on Jared Gooden by decision is a monster price! Let’s have some fun and plump for the long shot!

PICK – Jared Gooden to win via DEC @ +700.

Only 2 fights left, which means we have arrived at the CO MAIN EVENT of the evening!

BRAD TAVARES V JUN YONG PARK

This one should be a pretty good scrap. As per the picture above Brad Tavares tends to take a bit of damage. Couple that with Jun Yong Park is a pressure fighter who loves to come forward, behind a great jab, and we have a recipe for some blood! In what more of a 50/50 fight than the bookies would have you believe.

But my best bet for this fight isn’t picking a winner. Even though Brad has lost a couple by KO of late, I don’t think Park has the power to get it done. Not when someone like 185 champ Dricus Du Plessis couldn’t back in 2022. Park isn’t a Gregor Rodrigues. His finishes tend to come more by the way of submission of late, and guess what? Brad Tavares has never been submitted in his career. Plus Brad has tremendous take down defence. So I just cannot see the fight going to the mat unless it’s initiated by Brad himself. Brad isn’t known for his wrestling.

So let’s sit back and watch the fight go a gruelling 15 minutes, and pick up the money when we cash they fight going the distance ticket.

PICK – Fight goes the distance @ -200

MAIN EVENT TIME!

BRANDON ROYVAL V TATSURO TAIRA

So far the 16-0 Tatsuro Taira has beaten everyone the UFC has put him in with. But this main event outing will be his toughest test to date as he face former title challenger Brandon Royval.

This has all the makings of a great fight. The unbeaten potential superstar against the rawdog super talented top 3 ranked fighter, who’s looking to get back to a title fight himself.

Royval is first class operator. His stand up is wicked. He has like a Muay Thai base, but is so fluid he likes to mix all sorts of striking in. Loves an elbow or two. He’s just great all over. Has a submission game, and is a super scrambler. His only slightly iffy skill, is his takedown defence. I’m sure Taira will test that.

Speaking of Taira this kid has all the tools to go all the way to the gold. Elite striking with both the hands and the feet. Defensively sound. Incredible grappling game and will look to take your back at any opportunity. Go watch tape on some of his fights. The grappling transitions are nuts! He is also 8 years younger than Royval.

I don’t think this will be a straightforward win for the Japanese favourite. Royval is going to test him and is a live dog in the fight. I just happen to be firmly on board the Taira hype train. This has all the makings of a great main event. I don’t expect it to be over quick, nor am I confident it goes the distance. But whatever happens, it’s going to be fun. I’ll lean that we see 5 rounds.

PICK – Taira to win via DEC @ +300. 

Enjoy the violence my friends.

Phil @PhilsBananas

PS – Free 20$ Bet on the fight if you head to https://theverifiedbookie.com and use our code BANANAS on sign up! LETS GET IT!