This Saturday, August 9th, the UFC APEX will host UFC Vegas 109: Dolidze vs. Hernandez.

If you’ve looked at this card from a betting perspective, you’ll see it’s littered with fights where one fighter is not only favored but is a huge favorite. However, what I like about these cards is that they’re an opportunity to bet on some huge underdogs. I’ve got three plays for you to throw a few dollars on that offer great value. So, let’s get into it.

BET 1 – Edwards vs. Cachoeira U2.5 rounds +165

We start with the lowest-odds play in my article, and while I know women’s MMA isn’t known for finishes, this one certainly carries hope.

Joselyne Edwards has an overall finish rate of 10 finishes in her 15 wins. Plus, she has won both of her last two fights by submission, so she’s got finishing ability. What makes this a great play, though, is that her opponent also loves a finish and a brawl.

Priscila Cachoeira from Brazil has won 13 fights in her professional career and lost 6. I’ve always enjoyed watching her fight because she loves a tear-up. Plus, of her 13 wins, 8 have come by knockout, and her last four fights have all ended by finish, two of which she lost.

Combine all of that, and I think the numbers point to this one not going the distance. I bet on the under 2.5 to boost the odds a bit**, as** I think this one ends one way or another in the first two rounds.

BET 2 – Gilbert Urbina to win +350

Don’t blink during this fight, ladies and gentlemen, as it’s set to be an all-action affair. However, I can’t understand why Urbina’s opponent, Uros Medic, is such a huge favorite. Medic has a 10-3 record, and he hasn’t really fought anyone that good. He took an absolute beating last time out, too**, getting smoked in one round by Puna Soriano.**

Urbina isn’t exactly elite, but he can fight. The main issue with him over the years has been inactivity. He’s only had three fights in the last four years. In his last fight, which he lost, it was 18 months ago. I’m hoping for some improvements during the layoff. I like this play because Urbina looks to finish fights right from the start. He’s a brawler, and he’s a threat on the ground and on the feet. He’s not elite by any means, but neither is Medic. The betting line here just seems a little crazy for two mid-level MMA guys.

In a two-horse race of this standard, I’ll happily throw a little money at the guy with much bigger odds. I can’t find a single reason to justifiably back Medic at -300. No way.

BET 3 – Ode Osbourne to win +425

Hear me out. There’s no way Steve Erceg should be a -500 favorite against this man, not with his current form. He’s lost his last three in a row. Yes, they were all against ranked flyweights, but losing can be a difficult habit to break, and this is by no means an easy matchup.

Osbourne enters with a 13-8 record and won his last fight by TKO against Luis Gurrule. That halted a three-fight skid of his own. However, before the Gurrule fight, he went life-and-death at the Sphere PPV, losing a razor-thin decision to Ronaldo Rodriguez. Of his 13 wins, he has five by KO and five by submission. He’s super well-rounded, and, more importantly, he applies nonstop pressure. This guy is by no means an easy out.

This price is borderline outrageous. Give me Osbourne to win at this price any day of the week against an out-of-form Aussie on a three-fight skid.

Enjoy the violence.

Phil

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Phillip Dean

Phillip Dean is a seasoned combat sports journalist from England, with over 27 years of ringside experience. Phillip delivers engaging, in-depth reporting on the world of combat sports.