What’s popping fight fans! We head over to Paris this weekend for a banger of a UFC fight card! This card is actually closer to me than the US cards, as I’m based in sunny England! Now it is worth noting that regardless of my own plays, if your betting this card, French fighters have over a 90% win rate on home soil! Unreal right! But for me, this weekend, the value is with the underdogs and few of them are French. Let’s get into it!

1st up we head to the lightweight division.

FARES ZIAM V MATT FREVOLA.

Last time out Matt Frevola got starched by this weekends headliner Benoit Saint-Denis. Fares Ziam isn’t in the same league as BSD. Fares is more of a kickboxing point fighter. He does have a little pop, but he tends to be a guy who wins on decisions. Even with Frevola coming off a KO loss, I don’t think Ziam can KO him. Unless Frevola gets really sloppy!

Matt Frevola is more of a brawler. He’s got pop in his punches and loves to get dragged into a firefight. But if he leans on his wrestling here, it’s a great path to victory for him, as he’s leaps and bounds better than Ziam is on the mat.

I love this fight and I think it’s a great spot for the surprising underdog in Frevola. I think we might see Matt come out strong and try get Ziam down from the off! I just don’t think Ziam can keep Frevola at range for 15 minutes. If you can find the under 2.5 at plus money take it. But I’ll be lumping on the American to start the main card off with France taking an L. Sorry Paris!

PICK – MATT FREVOLA TO WIN @ +110

Next up it’s a banger in the featherweight division.

MORGAN CHARRIERE V GABRIEL MIRANDA

Now this fight almost feels like an easy set up fight for Morgan Charriere. An I have to agree. He’s a massive favourite to get the win, at around -600 at time of writing. He’s just better than Gabriel Miranda in every single area bar his submission skills. Morgan is coming off a loss last time out, where in this writers opinion he was robbed by the judges in his fight against Chepe Mariscal. Gabriel Miranda hasn’t fought for a year and this is a terrible match up for him to make his return in.

Charriere basically just has to avoid getting caught in a submission in round 1. If he does that then I can’t see him not winning this fight. Miranda has a poor gas tank, and won’t be able to hang in this fight long after the 1st round. No value in taking the money line here. So look for the prop markets and see what you like. But for me, Charriere by KO is the play. Thank me later.

PICK – MORGAN CHARRIERE VIA KO @ -150

The third fight on the card takes us into the 170lb welterweight division.

KEVIN JOUSSET V BRYAN BATTLE.

This is another fight on the card that I really like. But if you’re French, I think your boy Kevin has a bit of a bad match up here. As Bryan Battle is one of those fighters, that is just good everywhere. He can strike, he can wrestle and he’s got a gas tank. Plus you couple that with the fact that Kevin Jousset isn’t exactly a high output guy, I think this fight just suits Battle down to the ground.

Last time out Jousset beat Kenan Song via decision. Plus if you look at his record before that, he’s never been in with someone of Battles calibre. Battle is 2 wins & 1 no contest in his last 3, and he was beating the shit out of Ange Loosa before an accidental eye poke gave Loosa a way out! Anyway I love Battle here as a straight bet or a parlay piece. He just has more routes to win, bar a robbery hometown decision win for Jousset. An nobody likes a robbery!

PICK – BRYAN BATTLE TO WIN @ -170

3 fights down, 3 to go. The next ones a banger. We head back to the 145lb featherweight division.

WILLIAM GOMIS V JOANDERSON BRITO.

William Gomis is the home fighter here and will have his hands full against Brazils Joanderson Brito.

Gomis is a bit like Fares Ziam who opens the main card. He’s a striker and he likes to fight at distance. If you give him time to throw his shots and find his rhythm he can piece you up. Technically he is extremely gifted on the feet. The problem for him in this fight, is that Brito isn’t going to allow him the space he needs. Because Brito is a savage who loves violence and will quite simply take one to land one. An if he can’t land one, he will take you down and grind on you. Whilst looking to lock in one of his slick submission skills.

So sadly this fight for me, isn’t going to be one that ends well for the home crowd! Brito is a great parlay piece on the ML @ -275/-300. But I don’t think he’s going to need all 3 rounds here. His last 5 fights haven’t needed the judges and it won’t be any different here.

PICK – JOANDERSON BRITO TO WIN BY FINISH @ -135

CO MAIN EVENT on deck! An I’m absolutely pumped for this one!

NASSOURDINE IMAVOV V BRENDAN ALLEN

Now I have to warn you taking my advice here. Because I don’t rate Imavov. Especially not as a big betting favourite at -225. This fight is a lot closer than that. Brendan Allen is a contender and enters on a 8 fight win streak. It’s number 5 v number 9 in the rankings. This is a close fight.

Now just because I don’t rate Imavov, it doesn’t mean he’s rubbish. He’s got very good striking, solid grappling and decent takedown defence. I just don’t think he’s huge levels above Allen. Allen for instance has the much better grappling and submission game, so if he’s smart he can certainly win this fight. Especially over 3 rounds.

I think Imavov will be cautious in the 1st round, trying to keep it standing and pick his shots at range. Whilst I think Allen is going to go for it from the off! Hunting the takedown. As I said before it’s a close fight. A pick em. So I have to take the dawg in this fight, especially at the odds on offer. I’ll even throw a sprinkle on Allen via SUB, as he’s got a dam right nasty rear naked choke! Again, sorry Paris.

PICK – BRENDAN ALLEN TO WIN @ +178

ITS TIME FOR THE MAIN EVENT OF THE EVENING! The crowd will be going wild for the hometown by BSD.

BENOIT SAINT-DENIS V RENATO MOICANO.

So has the hype behind BSD ended after his loss last time out to The Diamond Dustin Poirier? It won’t have for the French crowd and it hasn’t for me. The guys a savage, and luckily for us. So is Renato Moicano from Brazil. This is certainly a fan friendly fight and again it’s closer than the odds suggest.

Renato Moicano enters off the back of a comeback from the dead victory against Jalin Turner. He’s won his last 3. BSD was on a tear before his loss to DP in March. He’d won his last 5 all inside the distance. Moicano is the higher ranked fighter here at 10. BSD is ranked 13.

From a betting point of view if I was playing the money line you’d have to have a sprinkle on Moicano. He’s so much better than the odds of +220. His submission game alone gives him a chance to win this. He’s got a great chin. A whilst BSD is the better striker, the Brazilian isn’t terrible on the feet. He can certainly bang. Plus we don’t know how recovered BSD is from getting slept in his last fight. Anyone else smell under 2.5 rounds? Cos I do. Whatever happens, this one’s going to send the fans home happy. As it’s impossible not to be action packed!

PICK – UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS @ -175.

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As always all my official plays and parlays will be on my instagram & X account @PhilsBananas

Enjoy the violence!
Phil.