🥊 UFC 325 MARKET REVIEW: Where The Money Is Moving… And Where YOU Should Be Placing It

By Cody Merrow | Fight Bananas

WHAT IS UP Fight Bananas family! Cody Merrow here, and oh boy, do we have a MAIN EVENT worth dissecting before UFC 325 goes down. We’re not just breaking down the fight tonight, we’re breaking down the MONEY. Because let’s be honest, if you’re watching the UFC, at some point you’re thinking about where to put a little action down. And if you’re gonna do it, you should be doing it SMART.

So today we’re diving into the UFC 325 market review, taking a look at the odds on both Polymarket and FanDuel for the featherweight title fight between Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. And I don’t say this lightly, the gap between these two platforms is telling us something RIGHT NOW that you need to pay attention to.

🥊 But First — What The Heck Is Polymarket? And Why Should You Care?

Okay, for those of you who haven’t stumbled onto Polymarket yet,  it’s a prediction market, which basically means it’s a platform where real people buy and sell “shares” in outcomes they think are going to happen, kind of like a stock market but for events like UFC fights, elections, and everything in between.

Here’s the thing though, prediction markets like Polymarket are fundamentally different from a traditional sportsbook like FanDuel or DraftKings, because sportsbooks set odds to make themselves money (that’s called the “vig”), while prediction markets are driven almost entirely by what other bettors actually believe will happen, and that difference matters A LOT when you’re looking for value. 🔥🔥🔥

🥊 THE MAIN EVENT: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes — UFC Featherweight Title

Alright, BUCKLE UP, because this is where it gets interesting.

Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski is coming in as the favorite to reclaim the UFC Featherweight Championship. And look, we KNOW what Volk is. We’ve watched this man dismantle some of the best featherweights on the planet, Max Holloway, Brian Ortega, Chan Sung Jung “The Korean Zombie” — the résumé speaks for itself. When Volk is healthy and dialed in, goddamn if he isn’t one of the most complete fighters in the entire UFC. He’s got the grappling, the striking, the chin, the gas tank, the full package.

But Diego Lopes is NO joke, family. This kid has been on an absolute TEAR in the division, and he’s earned this title shot. He’s got serious power, he’s hungry, and he’s got something to prove on the biggest stage. This is a legitimate championship fight with a legitimate challenger.

Now…here’s where the MONEY talk starts.

🥊 The Numbers: Polymarket vs. FanDuel — Side by Side

Let’s break this down real quick. On Polymarket, you’d be buying a Volkanovski contract at 59 cents, meaning the market believes he has roughly a 59% chance of winning. Lopes sits at 42 cents, or about a 42% chance. Simple m

ath, simple concept,  if Volk wins, your 59-cent contract pays out a dollar.

Over on FanDuel, Volk is currently sitting at -146, which converts to about a 59.3% implied probability. Lopes is at +124, which shakes out to roughly 44.6% implied.

And HERE’S what you should be paying attention to 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

🥊 The Market Is Moving

When this line first opened, Volkanovski was a -166 favorite on FanDuel,  that’s a 62.4% implied probability. He has since drifted all the way down to -146. That might not sound like a huge move to some of you, but in the world of UFC betting, that is SIGNIFICANT line movement. The sharp money, the informed bettors, the people who actually do their homework — they are collectively pushing this line in Lopes’ direction.

And Polymarket is basically confirming the same story. The prediction market has Volk at 59%, while FanDuel’s current number is 59.3%,  they’re nearly locked in on Volkanovski’s chances. But the key difference? Polymarket has Lopes at 42%, while FanDuel has him at 44.6%. That’s a gap, and gaps are where VALUE lives.

Let’s be honest,  if you think the “true” probability of either fighter winning is close to what these markets are showing, here’s exactly where you should be putting your money:

👍️ Think Volkanovski is going to win? FanDuel is your spot. The implied probabilities are nearly identic

al acros

s both platforms for Volk, BUT FanDuel gives you access to sign-up bonuses, parlays, and promotional offers that Polymarket simply doesn’t. You can also grab a referral bonus right now — use code “AFPOD” when you sign up here: 👇🏻

🔥 Sign Up at DraftKings Sportsbook — Use Code AFPOD 🔥

👎 Think Diego Lopes is about to pull off the upset? Then Polymarket is where you want to be. The prediction market has Lopes priced at 42 cents — that’s a LOWER implied probability than FanDuel’s 44.6%. In betting, a lower implied probability on a platform means you’re getting a BETTER price on that outcome. Translation? You’re getting more bang for your buck on a Lopes win over on Polymarket. And if this man pulls it off — and I’m telling you, it’s not out of the question — you’re going to be VERY glad you grabbed that number.

🥊 So Who’s Actually Winning This Thing?

Alright, I know what you’re thinking,  “Cody, great, tell me where to bet, but WHO do you actually think wins?”

Here’s the thing. I respect Volkanovski’s résumé,  the man is a LEGEND in this division. But I cannot ignore what this line movement is telling us. The market has spoken, and it’s saying this fight is CLOSER than it was a week ago. Lopes has the power, he’s got momentum, and he’s fighting for something real.

That said,  Volk is Volk. You don’t become a two-time featherweight champion by being beatable. I still think Volkanovski is the slight favorite for a reason, and I’d be surprised if we don’t see his elite-level game plan neutralize a lot of what makes Lopes dangerous.

My lean? Volkanovski, but NOT comfortably. This is a fight where I’m watching every single second of every single round. 🥊

🥊 Catch The Conversation

Want to talk about this fight, the odds, and everything UFC 325? Come hang out with us!

📱 Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) for live reactions, takes, and all the UFC 325 coverage:

@cody_merrow

And if you’re not already locked in on The Anik & Florian Podcast — get on it. That’s where we break down fights like this in REAL time, with analysis you’re not getting anywhere else. Links and everything you need 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

Cody Merrow is the Live Producer of “The Anik & Florian Podcast” and “Remember The Show” in the MMA space, as well as “The Gresh & Anik Show” covering New England sports. Formerly of MMA Underground (The UG) as a media member, social director, and lead writer for the “Pound 4 Pound Podcast” newsletter. Avid golfer (15 handicap) and proud father to a King Charles Cavalier. Follow him on X @ cody_merrow

Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment and informational purposes. Please gamble responsibly.