▪️UFC 319 is LIVE from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois this Saturday. 

What’s up, fight fans! It’s your boy Phil with a breakdown of all the violence coming our way Saturday night. The UFC returns to Chicago for a pay-per-view event that has us salivating. Headlined by a middleweight title fight that’s certain to be one for the ages, it’s the champion at 185, Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis, facing off against the undefeated smashing machine Khamzat Chimaev.

We’ve got a stacked lineup of fights, with a five-fight main card to break down. From flyweight fireworks to a middleweight title clash, this card is loaded—let’s dive into it!

Kai Asakura (21-5-0) vs. Tim Elliott (21-13-1)

What a way to kick off the main card with this thriller in the 125-pound division!

Kai Asakura signed with the UFC after a long stint with Rizin in Japan. He was rushed into a title fight for his debut against Alexandre Pantoja, as the UFC matchmakers struggled to find a fresh face in the flyweight title picture. He was submitted in the second round by the champ, but don’t read too much into that. Many fighters transitioning from other promotions struggle in their debut, especially against one of the pound-for-pound best. Asakura (16 of his 21 wins inside the distance) brings an all-action style, with explosive striking and a knack for hunting finishes from the start. Don’t blink!

His opponent, Tim Elliott, is a UFC veteran who’s fought a whopping 20 times for the organization. The two-time All-American wrestling champion brings a barnstorming pace and relentless grappling, meaning Asakura will have to be at his best to avoid being mauled on the mat. The former Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions winner has fought for the title before and hopes an upset win over Asakura sparks a late-career run at the 125-pound belt. What a cracking opener!

Prediction: Asakura’s striking will eventually prove to be too crisp for the veteran Elliot. Kai stops him during a flurry of punches exchanged. Showing his power is just the deciding factor in this one.

Michael “Venom” Page (23-3) vs. Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier (18-8)

As soon as I typed this matchup, I remembered this main card is packed with thrillers!

Michael “Venom” Page (MVP) makes his second appearance at 185 pounds in the UFC after dominating Shara Magomedov last time out. MVP made the highly touted prospect look average at best, winning comfortably by unanimous decision, even in Magomedov’s backyard in Saudi Arabia. Expect MVP to use a similar game plan against Cannonier: kick and move, getting in to strike and getting out. While MVP rates his own power, he’s smart enough to know he doesn’t hit as hard as his opponent at 185.

On the other side, Jared Cannonier is a beast who hits like a truck—if he lands clean, you’re going to sleep. But at 41, he’s slowing down, which could be trouble against the fleet-footed Englishman. Cannonier’s knockout of Gregorio Rodrigues last time out was superb, but it was a great matchup for him, as Robocop, who isn’t exactly fast on his feet, is more of a plodder. If Jared catches MVP, he could pull off the upset. But unless MVP’s foot speed has mysteriously faded in the last six months, I just don’t see it.

Prediction: Jared will have his moments, but I’m picking MVP to dance his way to a decision victory on the judges’ scorecards.

Geoff “Handz of Steel” Neal (16-6) vs. Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates (21-7)

Outside the main event, this is the most intriguing matchup on the card!

I’m a big fan of Geoff Neal, the epitome of doing your best with what God gave you. With great boxing, a solid all-around game, and a hard-working attitude, he’s extremely tough to put away—losing only one of his 22 fights by knockout (a third-round KO to Kevin Holland in 2017 on the regional scene). He’s not quite the gatekeeper of the 170-pound rankings, but he’s a great test for any highly touted prospect coming off a loss.

Enter Carlos Prates, a guy who’s kind of impossible to dislike. This Brazilian is fun to watch, genuinely nice, hits like he’s got dynamite in his hands, and—get this—smokes like a trooper to help cut weight (haha). Prates is coming off a decision loss to Ian Machado Garry, where, for four of five rounds, he got exposed by the talented Irishman. He’ll look to bounce back strongly here, and I’m leaning toward Prates to win by decision. But can he get the durable Neal out of there in style? If he does, he’ll vault back into the 170-pound title picture (maybe even with a Marlboro sponsorship—haha).

Prediction: Prates’ power gives him the edge, but Neal’s durability makes it tough. I’m picking Prates by decision.

Co-Main Event: Lerone “The Miracle” Murphy (16-0-1) vs. Aaron Pico (13-4)

It’s been a rough ride for former Bellator/PFL fighters in their UFC debuts. On Saturday, we’ll see if the highly touted Aaron Pico follows Patchy Mix’s struggles or proves he’s ready for the UFC’s elite. I’m not completely sold on Pico. Sure, he looks the part, has a ridiculous physique, and boasts arguably the best wrestling in the division. But as we all know, that doesn’t mean you’re going to run through the division. His striking, while improving, is sub-par—especially against a striking talent like Murphy. If Pico gets this to the ground and keeps his opponent there, he wins, maybe even by submission. If not, he’s in for a world of pain.

Now, meet his polar opposite, Lerone Murphy. With insanely good striking and kickboxing, Murphy’s wrestling kinda sucks. His takedown defense is okay at about 55%, and he’s good at getting up when taken down. However, he hasn’t faced a wrestler in Pico’s league. His takedown defense must be on point, or he’ll get mauled. Keep it standing, and Murphy wins—maybe even by knockout. On the ground, Pico takes it. It’s that simple: standing, Murphy; grounded, Pico.

Prediction: You decide who you’re picking, but Murphy’s from Manchester, so he’s got my vote for a striking masterclass and a possible knockout!

Middleweight Championship Main Event: Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis (23-2) vs. Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev (14-0)

IT’S TIME! Five rounds for the UFC Undisputed Middleweight World Title. If you’re reading this, I’d be shocked if you don’t know who these two fighters are. For me, this is the best possible fight for the 185-pound gold.

The champ, DDP, is the guy everyone loves to write off—and most are this week, including the bookies, who have him as a +200 underdog. The South African is great everywhere, but his best attribute is his will to win. He finds ways to beat you, even if it’s not pretty, and he’ll hope that game plan proves undeniable again this Saturday. Write him off at your own peril. If Khamzat isn’t at his absolute best, DDP will beat him—maybe even if he is. The South African is just that good at getting it done.

Now, let’s talk about the challenger, Khamzat Chimaev. He shot onto the scene during the COVID years, rag-dolling opponents and finishing them in minutes. What followed, though, were fight cancellations, decision wins, and serious health issues. However, last time out, he looked sensational, beating former champ Robert Whittaker with ease in under a round, breaking Rob’s jaw in the process. As incredible as that was, I have a nagging feeling he can’t do it back-to-back—especially not against a champ like DDP in his prime.

Saturday’s main event will be a fantastic spectacle in Chicago. But this narrative that Chimaev is guaranteed to win? It’s too straightforward, and I’m not buying it. Not for the gold. Not against a man with the absolute DAWG in him. Chirp at me on Sunday if you want, but when the dust settles, I’m calling it: DDP retains the belt and cements his legacy as one of the greatest middleweights ever.

Enjoy the violence!

Phil

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Phillip Dean

Phillip Dean is a seasoned combat sports journalist from England, with over 27 years of ringside experience. Phillip delivers engaging, in-depth reporting on the world of combat sports.