It’s the weekend! It’s time for violence. The UFC Apex shows are at number 99, and next month we will be at 100. Whilst I do believe it’s time to move on from The Apex shows, I always remain grateful to Dana & Co for giving us something to bet on when the rest of the world shut down. Anyhow, enough of the reminiscing you degenerate. Let’s get into this breakdown, as we have 5 fights on this main card to get into!

On deck in the main card opener is a pair of featherweights that love to bang!

DARREN ELKINS V DANIEL PINEDA.

Great fight to open the main card, as you don’t get anything else from a guy nicknamed “Damage” in Darren Elkins. His fights are always fun to watch! Darren makes the walk with a record of 28-11 and at 40 years old he is one of the older guys on the roster. Last time out he beat TJ Brown by submission after he locked in a rear naked choke. Elkins is known for his ability to get bloodied up. Hence the nickname. He is also no stranger to winning fights, that he looks to be on the verge of losing. I expect this fight could play out in a similar way.

Daniel Pineda like Elkins is one of the older guys on the roster at 39. He has a record of 28-16 and is currently on a 2 fight losing skid. So he will be hoping to get back in the win column this time around. However, this isn’t the best match up for him in my opinion.

Daniel is a well rounded fighter, like Elkins. But my issue for him here is the pace Elkins will push. The Damage will keep coming whilst ever the fight is still going. If Pineda can’t get this done in the first round, I think he is going to be in a whole world of trouble. As we have seen him gas out before. Betting Elkins at the end of round 1 is a great live play. But we shall keep it simple here and take him on the money line! Whilst it’s a pick’em fight, once it’s past the 5 minute mark, I would favour Elkins big time. Thank me later. lol.

PICK – Darren Elkins to win @ -110

Our second fight of the night takes us to the Bantamweight division.

JAKE HADLEY V CAMERON SMOTHERMAN. 

Cameron Smotherman steps in on short notice here after Brady Hiestand pulled out. I haven’t watched whole host of Cameron, other than when he got knocked out on the Contender Series by Charalampos Grigoriou back in August last year. Let’s face it that’s not a great look. But he has won 3 fights since then, 2 of them inside the distance in Fury FC.

Jake Hadley is a fighter I’d really like to see push on from his win last time out against Caolan Loughran. Hadley has some great grappling and his striking is solid. He’s a well rounded fighter and he keeps the pressure on for the whole time the fights going. If he could consistently make weight, I think people would be less critical of him. It will be interesting to see if he makes the contracted weight this Friday. Especially if his opponent can on short notice.

I won’t be betting this fight purely cos I don’t know enough about Cameron. But if I was to throw a dart, or you want to, I’d take the pick below.

PICK – Hadley to win via DEC (ODDS not out yet)

2 down and 3 to go, a flyweight fight that’s nailed on to deliver.

CHARLES JOHNSON V SUMUDAEJI.

For the record that’s the last time I’ll be writing The Tibetan Eagles name. I’ll shorten it to Sumu for this breakdown. lol.

Sumu comes to the Octagon with a record of 16-6 and is currently riding a 2 fight skid. He was submitted by Matt Schnell, and Tim Elliot in those 2 fights. This is his first fight of 2024 so he will be fresh, and ready to rumble. As this good loves to stand and bang. Sumu has 13 wins coming by knockout in his 16 wins. A fight fans dream right. If he can keep out any grappling exchanges, he has a solid shot to win the fight.

For that very reason the result of this fight depends mainly on Charles Johnson’s game plan. If he throws some grappling in with his very good stand up game, I don’t see Sumu getting it done here. He might not even get it done if Charles purely keeps it standing. As Johnson’s current 3 fight winning streak shows, he is a fighter very much on form. Sumu has never been knocked out, so I think we get a fun 3 round fight here. The over 2.5 rounds here is -200 for that reason, and unless Johnson can lock in a submission win, it think that’s a safe bet. Charles last sub win was back in 2021.

Whatever happens in the fight, I only see one winner. Charles Johnson extends his streak to 4-0. Take my money.

PICK – Charles Johnson via DEC @ +110.

Co-main event of the evening time. We move back to the 135 pound division.

KYLER PHILLIPS V ROB FONT.

Number 11 and number 12 ranked guys go head to head here, in what I have no doubts will be an absolute barn burner of a scrap.

Both men are super durable, both prefer to keep it on the feet and that makes for a fan friendly showdown! Rob Font has some of the best boxing in the division. An that’s with the likes of Petr Yan & Suga Sean in the division. He has super crisp striking and if you ain’t battle tested he can turn piece you up big time for 3 rounds. From an experience level in this fight, it’s ain’t even close. Font has fought the likes of Aldo, Sandhagen, Vera, Cody No Love to name just a few. Whilst he may not have won all those fights, nobody finished him. He has only 1 loss in his career by finish, and that was a submission.

Kyler Phillips is 12-2 and the younger man at 29 years old. He goes by the name The Matrix as he has some slick stand up and fantastic footwork. He’s hard to hit. Very hard to hit clean. He comes in riding a 3 fight win streak and won a great fight last time out against Pedro Munhoz. Yet I still think if Font still has something in the tank this is his toughest test to date.

If you fancy an underdog at decent odds on this card then Rob Font is your guy for sure @ +300. I don’t see a lot of value in Phillips at -400 on the ML. But I do love my official pick for him to get it done on the scorecards.

PICK – Kyler Phillips to win via DEC @ -120.

It’s time for the MAIN EVENT of the evening! 5 rounds might not be needed though!

MICHAEL PEREIRA V ANTHONY HERNANDEZ. 

I loved this fight soon as it was announced! Two guys riding win streaks. Both super talented. For me it’s a fight that should be opening a PPV card or at least have a crowd! But anyhow, the main thing is that we are going to see these 2 middleweights collide on Saturday night. For our viewing entertainment.

Anthony Hernandez is probably one of the most underrated guys in the division. He has incredible grappling chops, and his stand up is improving all the time. His cardio isn’t an issue and if he needs to go all 5 rounds I have no doubts he can. If he was fighting anyone else below him in the rankings, or even some higher. I’d pick him to win. He still could well win on Saturday. I just happen to be betting the guy standing across from him. But no bones about it. Hernandez is a killer.

As for his foe on Saturday night. He to is riding a win streak of his own. He’s won his last 8. The last 3 of these wins all came in the first round. All within 90 seconds to be exact. Michael Pereira spent years not fighting to his strengths and killing himself to make the 170lb division. But those days or over. This guy looks like an absolute savage at 185 pounds. His striking is great, he can grapple, scramble and defend takedowns. If I have any concerns it would be his cardio maybe. But that’s only cos of late he hasn’t been out of round 1. But I doubt that’s not where it needs to be for this main event.

This wont be an easy fight for either man. It’ll be very close and both guys will have their moments. I just think when the dust settles the bigger more powerful guy will be left standing. Which is Michael Pereira. Underdog odds? Take my money.

PICK – Michael Pereira to win @ +112.

Enjoy the violence ya filthy animals!

Phil @PhilsBananas

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