*Id like to start this weeks article off with a dedication to the fighting pride of Hull. Mollie, this ones for you.

This weekends UFC card is set to be legendary and not just because of the fighters taking part in the event. Yes Sean O’Malley is a superstar. But for this card in particular I have a feeling the venue is going to steal the show. This event will be like no other. It takes place at The Sphere in Las Vegas. Production costs alone have gone over 20 million dollars,  and Dana White has already said this will be like nothing we have ever seen before. a one of one event. However, unless a bookmaker has opened up some prop betting markets for the venue this weekend, the brilliance of the venue isn’t something us degenerates can bet on! So lets get into some fights.

What better way to start a card off with a flyweight banger!

RONALDO RODRIGUEZ V ODE OSBOURNE.

This card is been sold as a love letter to the Mexican people. So Ronaldo Rodriguez will be particularly keen to get the main card going in style! Luckily for us this guy is always entertaining to watch. This is only his 2nd fight in the UFC, but he is riding a nice 6 fight win streak. He also makes the walk with a pro record of 16-2 with 12 of those wins coming inside the distance! What’s not to like? Nothing basically!

Jamaica’s Ode Osbourne fights out of Milwaukee, USA. Bringing with him a pro record of 12-7. Whilst he doesn’t have the impressive win streak that Rodriguez has, he is rarely in a boring fight win or lose. Which for people tuning in, its exactly what you want. Plus nobody ever wants to see a PPV open with a snooze fest. Or any other card for that matter.

I think this fight is Ronaldo Rodriguez’s fight to lose. If he performs how he has of late he wins. Osbourne will be desperate to get his UFC career back on track with a win, and I aren’t a fan of fighters in that situation. Rodriguez is hovering around the -140 to win at time of writing, and I think that’s probably the safest money line play of the main card. Its one Ill be taking. However my absolute best value bet for this fight is Rodriguez via submission at +350. Osbourne has lost his last 2 fights by rear naked choke, and Rodriguez just so happens to have a slick submission game. Take my money!

PICK – Rodriguez to win @ -140 | BEST PROP BET – Rodriguez via submission @ +350.

For fight number 2 we head to the lightweight division for a Mexico v Argentina firefight!

DANIEL ZELLHUBER V ESTEBAN RIBOVICS.

Mexican Daniel Zellhuber lost his UFC debut to Trey Ogden in what was considered a bit of an upset. But since then he has reeled off 3 straight wins to get him back on track as a highly touted prospect for the UFC. Whilst he is favoured to get the win at The Sphere, he wont have it all his own way against Esteban Ribovics. The Argentine, like Zellhuber, lost his UFC debut. But has won his last 2 since and certainly has the tools to pull off the upset if Zellhuber is even slightly off his game. Both fighters have only lost once as professionals.

This fight is going to play out on the feet. Both guys like to bang. But if Ribovic’s is going to win the fight he is going to have to get on the inside and make it ugly. As Zellhuber is going to have a huge height and reach advantage. From a betting angle I have to role with the -200 Mexican favourite. I think we will see a hugely entertaining fight, but I just think Zellhuber has the easier route to victory. He has a 8 inch reach advantage, coupled with a 3 inch height advantage. Zellhuber is a smart fighter. I expect him to keep Ribovic at range and strike his way to a win on all 3 of the judges scorecards.

PICK – Zellhuber to win @ -200 | BEST PROP BET – Zellhuber via decision @ +120. 

So if the 1st 2 fights where the starter. The next 3 fights are certainly the main course. 1st up we have a fight that should of took place earlier this year. But Brian Ortega couldn’t make weight. Lets hope he can get down to 145lbs this time around! Lay off the Cheeseburgers Brian!

BRIAN ORTEGA V DIEGO LOPES.

Brian Ortega is a UFC veteran. He is mainly known for having one of the best submission games in the entire UFC. Well, that and dating the amazing Tracey Cortez. Ortega boasts a excellent record of 16-3 with half of those wins coming via submission. One of those came last time out as he finish Mexican Yair Rodriguez with a 3rd round arm triangle choke in Mexico City.

Diego Lopes jumped onto the scene in the UFC just last year. He has a record of 25-6 and is no stranger to been a active fighter. This will be his 6th fight in 16 months! Yes you read that right. The guy just loves to fight. He is riding a 4 fight win streak, with his most recent win coming against Dan Ige at UFC303. He could not be more opposite to Ortega in terms of activity. This is just Ortega’s 5th fight since 2018! Pretty ridiculous really. Yes Ortega has had injuries, but for me the guys just not active enough.

I would of loved to have taken a shot at Ortega here at plus money. I almost tried to convince myself that he can win. But its a sucker bet. Ortega’s best chance of victory is submission. But Lopes has a brilliant submission game to counter that! On the feet it isn’t even close. Yes Ortega’s striking has improved. But not to the level that Lopes operates at. Plus Lopes carries 1 punch knockout power. The guy hits like a truck. Just go and ask Sodiq Yusuff or Pat Sabatini. Although they could still be in the shadow realm. The one positive thing for Ortega is that the guy has a chin and he is willing to go out on his shield. He won’t quit. His 2 stoppage loses only came due to injury and the referee saving him from even more of a beating at the hands of Max Holloway.

PICK – Lopes to win @ -180 | BEST PROP BET – Lopes via decision @ +200.

Co main event time! Third times a charm?

ALEXA GRASSO V VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO. 

Now do we really need that much of a break down on this fight in terms of records? Nope! Valentina Shevchenko is one of the best female MMA fighters to ever do it! Before her loss to Grasso she was dominant. Very few people saw Grasso as the woman to break that dominance! But here we are! Alexa Grasso is on her way to putting herself on the map as the greatest female Mexican fighter to make the walk! Her improvements in the last few year have been sensational. Along with that her will to win is second to none! The girls got heart!

So following the draw these ladies battled out last time, who wins fight 3. It’s close. Razor close. These ladies both have an all round game. A threat on the feet and on the mat. But I’d still say Valentina has the edge on the feet! Grasso could have it on the mat. As I said, it’s super close.

Call it a hunch. Call it a feeling. But i think Valencia finally gets the W. I had her winning fight 2 and I think this plays out exactly the same. Minus the odd 10-8 scorecard one of the judges gave Grasso last time out, to secure the draw!

PICK – Shevchenko to win @ +110 | BEST PROP BET – Shevchenko via decision @ +175.

ITS TIME FOR THE MAIN EVENT OF THE EVENING!

SEAN O’MALLEY V MERAB DVALISHVILI. 

It’s finally time for Suga Sean to fight his number 1 contender. After settling the score with his former nemesis Chito Vera last time out. Merab has been calling for this fight since Sean took the title from his best mate Aljo Sterling back in Boston last August. Sean’s always had it in for Merab anyway, taking offence when the Georgian fighter stole his jacket back in May 2023.

This is the classic striker versus grappler match up. One the fans, and especially Suga Sean’s critics have been itching for!

Sean silenced some of his critics after he beat Aljo Sterling for the belt. But he has never faced a fighter who will pressure him and try and take him down as much as Merab will. Merab is relentless. The fight will most likely come down to can Merab avoid getting caught by Sean’s lethal striking. If he can, I think he wins. But in regards to my official pick, I don’t think Merab can avoid Sean’s striking for the whole 5 rounds. Merab has been wobbled before, by lesser fighters than the Suga show! I actually think this will be the moment where Sean scores the KO win that cements him as one of the Top 3 stars in the UFC. He’s going to catch Merab cold. Round 1 cold. Log it. This one doesn’t need much of a write up. It’s got WTF MOMENT written all over it.

PICK – O’Malley wins @ -138 | BEST PROP BET – O’Malley wins via KO RD1 @ +500.

Enjoy the violence.
Phil @PhilsBananas