Were my dawgs at? After a two week break from UFC fight nights I hope you’re all still here! Now unless you’re a complete degenerate you should have saved a ton of money with no fights to bet on! Which means it’s time to go big or go home leading into the penultimate fight night before The Sphere card. So let’s get into breaking down a card that should certainly not be in The Apex! The main and co-main in particular deserves a live crowd! Anyway, here we go!

RONG ZHU V CHRIS PADILLA 

Back in February 2024 Rong Zhu won the 155lb “Road to the UFC” tournament, with 2 of his 3 wins in the tournament coming by finish. This is his 2nd run in the UFC following his 3 fight run back in 2021. Losing 2 of his 3 fights. But he does look like he’s improved his game in the years he’s been away from the big show.

Chris Padilla is 1-0 in his UFC career and 14-6 overall. He is currently riding a 4 fight win streak. I really like Padilla. He’s a really exciting fighter and has the ability to finish you on the feet or on the ground. Solid striking and slick grappling. What’s not to like!

These guys are a great match up. Zhu is going to do his upmost to keep this on the feet. Padilla won’t mind that so much, but his clearest path to victory is on the ground! This one shouldn’t need the judge’s involvement. One of these guys is getting it done inside the 15 minutes. Zhu is the bookies favourite at time of writing this article. But it really should be a pick’em fight. I’ll take the underdog Chris Padilla getting it done at +200. When the props come out, I’ll have a sprinkle on the sub win too. Zhu has 4 losses via sub in his career. This will make it 5. BOOM!

PREDICTION – CHRIS PADILLA TO WIN VIA SUB.

Who likes violence? Well don’t worry as this next fight is guranteed to deliver!

TREVOR PEEK V YANAL ASHMOUZ.

Soon as this fight was announced I was like YES! BANGER! Trevor Peek is 2-2 in the UFC but he just isn’t in boring fights. Win or lose this guy brings it! Couple that with an opponent like Yanal Ashmouz and you have fireworks! In Yanals 7-1 pro fight record, he’s only gone the distance once and that was in a loss to the super tough Chris Duncan.

So who’s taking home the W? Well this is a true 50/50 fight. Both guys can stand and bang. Both can bring chaos. Especially Peek. But I think Ashmouz has the advantage on the ground, where he is technically better. Peek can grapple. But he isn’t as good as Ashmouz is there. So with that, I’ll take him to get it done. But for me, this is the toughest fight on the card to call!

PREDICTION – YANAL ASHMOUZ TO WIN VIA DEC.

Flyweights at Bantamweight are on deck in fight 3! LFG! The weight change is due to Durden coming in on short notice.

MATT SCHNELL V CODY DURDEN 

Cody Durden is a DAWG! He steps in on less than a weeks notice to fight Matt Schnell following Alessandro Costa’s pull out.

I actually think this is much tougher assignment for Schnell now. Durden is ranked 1 spot lower than Schnell in the rankings at 16.

Both guys are on 2 fight losing skids. Schnell has been fighting the tougher opponents. Losing last time out to Steve Erceg via KO. Durden is coming off a KO loss too. But was on top against Bruno Silva till he screwed up and had his lights turned out.

I have to ride with Durden here. I just can’t trust Schnells chin or fight IQ. Even when it’s against someone coming in on short notice. Durden is relentless. He’s not going to give Schnell a moments rest. He’s going to overpower Schnell with punches and takedowns. Come Monday Cody Durden will be in the TOP 15.

PREDICTION – CODY DURDEN TO WIN VIA KO.

Next up we head over to the featherweight division.

STEVE GARCIA V KYLE NELSON 

When you have 2 guys with the nicknames “Monster” and “Mean Machine” you don’t expect anything other than an awesome fight! So don’t worry this isn’t a play on words. These guys will deliver!

Both guys are riding impressive win streaks. Steve Garcia has 13 of his 16 wins by KO. Kyle Nelson has 10 of his 16 wins by finish also. The judges can take a night off in this one for sure! Neither guy likes a takedown. Throwing the odd one in every 15 minutes. This is going to be a war on the feet.

Whilst I think Kyle Nelson has certainly improved recently, I don’t think he has the volume or pressure to match Steve Garcia. It won’t be an easy nights work for Garcia, but eventually I think he will get to Nelson’s chin and finish the fight. One things for sure. There will be blood.

PREDICTION – STEVE GARCIA TO WIN VIA KO.

As we push on through the action, we find ourselves at the co-main event of the evening! Two women enter the cage, in what could be a passing of the torch kinda fight.

JESSICA ANDRADE V NATALIA SILVA

Two ladies from Brazil. Both ranked in the top 10. Both absolute savages! I love to see it!

Jessica Andrade is a former UFC CHAMP who has had a bit of a resurgence of late. Winning her last 2 fights against Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez. Before that people were writing her off as a spent force. Me included.

Natalia Silva is a striker. She’s got great footwork, and outstanding Muay Thai skills. She boasts solid takedown defence and can hang in the scramble on the ground shout things hit the mat. She’s also lightening quick. She is 5-0 in the UFC.

If this fight stays on the feet then I expect Silva to win. Andrade maybe hits harder, but she isn’t as technically gifted as Silva in the stand up. If Andrade can get her to the ground it gives her the best path to victory. I just aren’t sure she can get it there. This fights certainly closer than the betting line suggest who have Silva a big favourite. Not a fight I’ll be betting, and whilst I’d never rule out a Andrade win altogether. I think Silva will come through the fire and win the contest on the judges scorecards.

PREDICTION – NATALIA SILVA TO WIN VIA DEC.

LADIES AND GENTLEMAN! ITS TIME FOR THE MAIN EVENT OF THE EVENING!

GILBERT BURNS V SEAN BRADY

The welterweight division always seems to make for fun fights and I don’t expect this one to be the exception to that rule.

I don’t think anyone dislikes Gilbert Burns. He’s extremely talented, a super nice guy and more often than not ends up in absolute wars! He’s got solid stand up and is a fantastic grappler with slick submission’s. But he has lost his last 2 against Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena. He was winning the JDM fight till he wasn’t. As Jack knocked him out in a come from behind win late in the 3rd round.

Sean Brady is a guy some people love to hate and I don’t really know why. He’s a fantastic fighter. Yes he has a style focused heavily on his grappling and BJJ skills. But his standup has improved and he uses it well to set up the take downs. His striking defence is on point too. He comes into this fight off the back of a submission win against Kelvin Gastelum. He is 16-1 as a pro.

Now if this was the Gilbert Burns of a few years ago, I’d take him to win this one. But I aren’t sure he will of recovered from that last loss v JDM. Plus I don’t think he will be able to hang with the pace Brady is going to push. Couple that with a career 50% takedown defence, it’s inevitable that Brady will get this to the ground. I expect Brady will grind his way through the first few rounds. But once it gets into the 2nd half of the fight, Brady will find a way to lock in the sub, and send one of my favourite UFC fighters of all time packing.

PREDICTION – SEAN BRADY TO WIN VIA SUB.

Enjoy the Violence.
Phil (@PhilsBananas )